Survival derby in the East
Aue plays in a 3-4-3 variation under Hannes Drews – 5-4-1 behind the ball and 3-4-3 on the ball. There have been some deviations, as sometimes Nazarov, the central striker, plays in a deeper position, on the ten, so the central midfield becomes 2-1. This move should be able to provide better possession on positional attacks. These kinds of attacks are actually rare for Aue, as the team relies on direct passes on the strikers, immediately after regaining possession.
Most probably Hannes Drews will choose the 5-4-1 / 3-4-3 system, which seems his favorite when playing on home ground. Playing with three central defenders will be a great advantage as one will follow the opposite striker trying to create space for his partner, while the others will still be in a 2v1 numerical superiority. It will be crucial how quickly the wide forwards, Köpke and Bertram, will take their defensive positions after losing possession to form the 5-4-1 shape. If they are late, the wing backs are exposed in 1v2 situations and danger could arise at their goal.
As mentioned, the main weapon of the home side will be direct passes to the strikers, in order to achieve very quick offensive actions. Tiffert movement back from defensive to the midfield line should help, as his vision and high quality passes can develop in dangerous attacks. The second weapon for the hosts will definitely be the set pieces – the most goals (10) scored by Aue this season came from dead balls. Again, Tiffert is the key player to take all standard situations.
The purple-whites will most probably face a 4-4-2 system, for the fourth time in the last six rounds. Aue won in Regensburg after a very good performance and had created seven clear cut opportunities, but clearly lost the next two games against 4-4-2 systems (in Bielefeld and at home against MSV Duisburg). Important to note that in the two defeats Aue created only three scoring chances per game.
All rumors indicate that Dynamo will play in a 4-4-2 system, as Uwe Neuhaus seemed satisfied with the second half against Fortuna last round, when the yellow-blacks played in this shape. The most important news for the guests is that captain Hartmann is back after suspension, as it’s well known he is a great leader for his team on the pitch. Although Dynamo obtained some good results when playing in this system (3 wins and 2 defeats), the overall performance was not so good: poor match in Sandhausen – 0-1, unconvincing at home against Regensburg – 1-0, very good match in Bielefeld – 3-2, poor home appearance against SV Darmstadt – 0-2, mediocre performance at home against FC Heidenheim 3-2. The reason behind the usage of this shape probably is that the attacking duo, Testroet and Koné complement each other very well. The first is stronger, drops deep to be a passing option and is able to create space for the fast Senegalese.
Dynamo should have some advantage on the flanks if they manage to use the time it takes for Aue’s wide forwards to drop into their defensive winger positions. Heise is back after injury and should displace Seguin as left back, he is a very offensive and dangerous full back, but not in his best form. Kreuzer, on the right, is also very offensive and can provide high quality crosses.
Just like the hosts, the guests are very dangerous from set pieces, with 17 goals out of a total of 42. 9 of those 17 goals from set pieces were scored away from home. Dynamo have been very dangerous 26 times from dead balls on foreign soil, while Aue have created 20 set pieces scoring chances in front of their own fans.
Erzgebirge Aue: Soukou, Adler (injured), Kempe (suspended)
Dynamo Dresden: Gonther, J Müller, Hauptmann (injured)
Possible lineups and team shapes